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Surface winds over California can compound fire risk during autumn, yet their long-term trends in the face of decadal warming are less clear compared to other climate variables like temperature, drought, and snowmelt. To determine where and how surface winds are changing most, this article uses multiple reanalyses and Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) to calculate autumn 10 m wind speed trends during 1979–2020. Reanalysis trends show statistically significant increases in autumn night-time easterlies on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Although downslope windstorms are frequent to this region, trends instead appear to result from elevated gradients in warming between California and the interior continent. The result is a sharper horizontal temperature gradient over the Sierra crest and adjacent free atmosphere above the foothills, strengthening the climatological nocturnal katabatic wind. While RAWS records show broad agreement, their trend is likely influenced by year-to-year changes in the number of observations.

 

Fuel break effectiveness in wildland-urban interface (WUI) is not well understood during downslope wind-driven fires even though various fuel treatments are conducted across the western United States. The aim of this paper is to examine the efficacy of WUI fuel breaks under the influence of strong winds and dry fuels, using the 2018 Camp Fire as a case study. The operational fire growth model Prometheus was used to show: (1) downstream impacts of 200 m and 400 m wide WUI fuel breaks on fire behavior and evacuation time gain; (2) how the downstream fire behavior was affected by the width and fuel conditions of the WUI fuel breaks; and (3) the impacts of background wind speeds on the efficacy of WUI fuel breaks. Our results indicate that WUI fuel breaks may slow wildfire spread rates by dispersing the primary advancing fire front into multiple fronts of lower intensity on the downstream edge of the fuel break. However, fuel break width mattered. We found that the lateral fire spread and burned area were reduced downstream of the 400 m wide WUI fuel break more effectively than the 200 m fuel break. Further sensitivity tests showed that wind speed at the time of ignition influenced fire behavior and efficacy of management interventions. 

Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent across the western United States, creating a need to better understand how megafire behavior will evolve in our warming world. Here, the fire spread model Prometheus is used to simulate the initial explosive growth of the 2020 August Complex, which occurred in northern California (CA) mixed conifer forests. High temperatures, low relative humidity, and daytime southerly winds were all highly correlated with extreme rates of modeled spread. Fine fuels reached very dry levels, which accelerated simulation growth and heightened fire heat release (HR). Model sensitivity tests indicate that fire growth and HR are most sensitive to aridity and fuel moisture content. Despite the impressive early observed growth of the fire, shifting the simulation ignition to a very dry September 2020 heatwave predicted a >50% increase in growth and HR, as well as increased nighttime fire activity. Detailed model analyses of how extreme fire behavior develops can help fire personnel prepare for problematic ignitions. 

The FireFlux II experiment was conducted in a tall grass prairie located in south-east Texas on 30 January 2013 under a regional burn ban and high fire danger conditions. The goal of the experiment was to better understand micrometeorological aspects of fire spread. The experimental design was guided by the use of a coupled fire–atmosphere model that predicted the fire spread in advance. Preliminary results show that after ignition, a surface pressure perturbation formed and strengthened as the fire front and plume developed, causing an increase in wind velocity at the fire front. The fire-induced winds advected hot combustion gases forward and downwind of the fire front that resulted in acceleration of air through the flame front. Overall, the experiment collected a large set of micrometeorological, air chemistry and fire behaviour data that may provide a comprehensive dataset for evaluating and testing coupled fire–atmosphere model systems.